cocoa price analysis : a complete look at august 2025 prices

Cocoa Price Analysis – August 2025

The month of August 2025 was marked by significant volatility in cocoa prices, reflecting persistent uncertainties surrounding global supply and production prospects in West Africa.

1. General Trends

• The daily ICCO price fluctuated between $7,285/t (August 26) and a peak of $8,163/t (August 12).

• Over the month, the average ICCO price hovered around $7,600/t, maintaining historically high levels despite a decline at the end of the period.

• In euros, prices followed the same trend, ranging from €6,251/t to €6,994/t.

2. Hesitant Start to the Month

On August 1, cocoa was trading at $7,422/t. After a slight drop around August 4, prices quickly regained strength, crossing the $7,880/t mark by August 6. This rise was fueled by:

• The weakness of exportable supply in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.

• Concerns related to unfavorable weather conditions.

3. Dynamic Mid-Month

August 12 marked the month's climax, with an ICCO price of $8,163/t, supported by the strength of futures contracts on the London and New York markets. This surge reflected the nervousness of traders facing a still-constrained supply.

4. End-of-Month Pressure

Following this peak, prices gradually retreated, falling to $7,329/t on August 29. This decline can be attributed to:

• Profit-taking by investors.

• A temporary easing of supply tensions.

• Reduced commercial activity due to the summer season.

5. Market Spreads 

• London: Prices remained around £5,200 – £5,700/t, reflecting expectations tied to African origins.

• New York: Contracts fluctuated between $7,580 and $8,500/t, more sensitive to speculative movements and the strength of the dollar.

Conclusion

The month of August 2025 illustrates a still-tense cocoa market, where fundamentals (limited production, climate uncertainties) are keeping prices at a very high, near-record level. While the bullish trend at the beginning of the month gave way to a technical pullback, volatility remains high, testifying to a fragile balance between supply and demand.

In summary:

• Trend: Bullish in the first half, pullback at the end of the month.

• Average Price: Approximately $7,600/t.

• Key Factors: Limited supply, weather, speculation.